Axilus, you ALWAYS make sense, and give a thorough bounty of evidence and hypothesis with every post, which makes you an understandable target. You make yourself too sane, which can be an asset when not killed, but less so in generality. Your reasoning like I said is thorough, even so to the point that you consider possibilities that I never noticed. In this game, that trait doesn't help me so much as it does enlighten me. All evidence is psychological. If we aren't proficient in psychoanalysis, we can't even rely on probability. If random people are killed, then chances are (67%) that pro-town would win in a 'hanging' battle; but we all know there is more to this conundrum. 67% couldn't be farther than the truth when the night scenes are included.
Assuming that all five night scenes consecutively kill a pro-town member, the pro-town is at a technical disadvantage. The game has 1/32% chance of ending in 5 rounds through lynching, by killing off all the mafia in this instance. There are 10 pro-town members and 5 mafia. After 5 rounds, 5 pro-town will be dead and likely 2-3 mafia will be dead. We are left with 2-3 pro-town that will be at a disadvantage, because along with 50% chance of lynching they must endure the night scenes. This gives the pro-town a 25% chance of winning in that predicament, which makes up 31/32% of the scenarios.
Overall, that would give pro-town an 8.75/32% chance of winning (so roughly 27%). Don't like those odds? Tough luck. It gets worse.
The mafia know who each other are-- We can't forget the simple facts! That boost is incalculable, but I feel that this advantage totally outstrips the advantage given by the detective, mayor, and medic.
So how does the pro-town win? You safely stow away the detective into the vaults of secrecy. The catacombs, or the annals of what is and forever shall be. When the detective dies, all that is left is intelligence. Probability has betrayed the pro-town, and so could strategy if we don't embrace it. Lone wolf tactics are impossible (27%), but there is one procedure that could sway the odds.
This is a strategy that can't be beaten even if the mafia know it. I'm serious.
Anyone care to see it?